Selling deep out-of-the-money cash-secured puts in bear markets will provide us with additional protection to the downside in return for lower, but still significant, option returns. This article will highlight the use of Delta and implied volatility to establish a framework for executing such trades with n 84% probability of success.
What is Delta?
This is one of the Option Greeks. There are 3 ways to define Delta. The one related to this topic is the probability of the option expiring in-the-money (or with intrinsic-value) at expiration. If we sell a put option with a Delta of -16 (put value is inversely related to share price), we have (approximately) an 84% probability of avoiding exercise without exit strategies.
What is implied volatility (IV)?
This is a forecast of the security’s price movement as implied by the option’s price movement in the marketplace. Since IV is typically published an annual basis and based on 1 standard deviation, we must use a conversion formula or calculator (we have one, folks) to determine the expected price range of a stock or ETF during a specific contract cycle. Since IV is based on 1 standard deviation (accurate 68% of the time), it will be accurate 84% of the time on the lower and upper ends of the range (68% + 16%).
A real-life example with Jabil, Inc. (NYSE: JBL): IV on 10/19/2022
JBL: IV on 10/19/2022
The BCI Expected Price Movement Calculator (available to premium members) using an annual IV of 38.64%
Expected Price Movement of JBL Using IV
The spreadsheet guides us to a breakeven price point of $54.06 (circled in red). This will include the strike price – the put premium. As it turns out, the strike with a Delta closest to 16 was the $55.00 strike which had a Delta of 18. No other strike was closer.
Broker platform showing a bid-ask spread of $0.80 – $0.95 for the $55.00 put option
JBL: Put Trade Entry Data
We will enter a put premium of $0.85 into our BCI Trade Management Calculator to establish initial calculations and exit strategy price points.
JBL: Initial calculations using the BCI Trade Management Calculator
JBL: Initial Put Calculations
Note the following for this 84% probability of success trade:
- Breakeven price point is $54.15 (yellow cell in the middle of the image), approximating our target of $54.06 (expected price movement calculator)
- The 31-day initial return is 1.57%, 18.48% annualized (blue cells)
- If we allow the put to be exercised (if ITM at expiration), we will have purchased JBL at a discount of 10.94% from the price at trade initiation (brown cell)
- The exit strategy price points are calculated in the yellow cells at the bottom of the image
Discussion
Defensive put-selling strike selections can be determined by using Delta and/or implied volatility. The use of these data points can assist us in establishing (approximately) 84% probability successful trades.
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Hello again Alan.
Thank you for recent conference on SPDRs.
I plan on starting next Monday using the 4 best. I will do weeklies as I believe the profit should be greater than monthlies.
As I will only have 4 positions the amount of time will not be unreasonable.
The question is: How do I use the 20/10 strategy with only 1 week?
Thanks again.
Barry
Barry,
When using weekly options, the 10% BTC GTC limit orders apply. It would the same as using monthly expirations and changing from 20% to 10% in the final 2 weeks of a contract.
Alan
Alan,
If you employ the 10% BTC for a weekly does it make sense to then roll out to the monthly expiration?
Barry
Barry,
You can certainly do this. However, my personal preference is to have each of my option portfolios with the same expiration date. This makes management much more user-friendly and time efficient.
For those with accounts with a small number of positions, integrating weekly and monthly positions into the same portfolio may be manageable.
We should start by identifying all the parameters of the strategy we are employing (Weeklys, Monthlys, initial time-value return goal range, moneyness of options, calls or puts etc.) and adhering strictly to those parameters.
Alan
Premium Members,
This week’s Weekly Stock Screen And Watch List has been uploaded to The Blue Collar Investor Premium Member site and is available for download in the “Reports” section. Look for the report dated 03/17/23.
Also, be sure to check out the latest BCI Training Videos and “Ask Alan” segments. You can view them on The Blue Collar YouTube Channel. For your convenience, the link to the BCI YouTube Channel is:
https://www.youtube.com/user/BlueCollarInvestor
Reminder: Premium members are grandfathered into your current rate and will never see a rate increase as long as the membership remains active.
Best,
Barry and The Blue Collar Investor Team
[email protected]
Hi Barry, Alan. I was not able to find the Blue Chip report for April contracts in the member site. Will you post it in the following days? Thanks as always.
Alex,
The Blue Chip Report for the April 2023 contracts has been uploaded to your member site. Look in the “resources/downloads” section of the member site under “B”
Alan
Alan,
Do you play the bid/ask spread in regards to the 20%/10% Guideline?
Thank you.
Donna
Donna,
Yes, we can leverage the “Show or Fill” rule with all option trade instructions to our brokerages.
As an example, if the buy-to-close (BTC) spread is $0.10 – $0.30, I may set a BTC limit order at $0.25.
As a guideline, we set the orders at slightly below the midpoint when selling and slightly above when buying.
Alan
Hi Alan,
I’m going though the new book/spreadsheets.
Two questions – Are there reasons for waiting until Tues to set up the program each month (for example – expected hot zones like JP speaking..)?
If there are enough contracts in OI and the spread is greater than .30 (as is the case with XLC based on the options chain today, do you move down the list to the next best ETF that qualifies?
Thank you,
Frank
Frank,
1. When I state, “the Monday or Tuesday after expiration Friday”, my focus is early in the next contract cycle. Monday may not be a convenient day or rare risk factors like you allude to. Generally, I enter my trades on Monday after expiration Friday between the hours of 11 AM ET and 3 PM ET.
2. I would focus in on the best performers and view the option chains during normal trading hours, after the 1st hour of trading has passed. After hours option-chains are often incomplete. There will rarely be a liquidity issue with these Select sector SPDRs.
Alan
Hello Alan and Barry
Hope you are enjoying well deserved weekend with dear ones.
I have a question?
For ETFs selected this week,
XLK, XLP, XLU and XLC the bid ask and open interest is not in the ranges
.30 and 100 for any of the preferable strikes.
In such scenario I will not be able to consider them.
What is your comment and how to go about.
Please clarify and oblige.
Regards
Venkat
Venkat,
Check the option chains today after 10:30 AM ET. That’s when market-makers start setting reasonable spreads, after they evaluate market direction.
Alan
Alan,
In the JBL example in this article, is your EM calculation different from EM= (P*ATM IV*(DTE)^1/2)/16?
The calculated EM seems to be approx. right for DTE = 20. For DTE =30, isn’t EM = $8.04?
Thanks for the clarification.
John
John,
The formula inherent in the spreadsheet is accurate:
Formula:
Approx. Expected (+/-1 Standard Deviation) Price Move =
($Stock Price)*(ATM IV)*[√((# Calendar Days to Expiration)/365)]
Note: √ is symbol for the “Square Root”
Alan
Dr. Ellman:
Thank you for your weekly emails. I use them together with the information in your books (I have three of them) to analyze my own trades. I think there is a small discrepancy in today’s (3/19/23) analysis of Cash Secured Puts. The first screenshot shows the number of days in trade equal to 30. The third screenshot uses the same dates but shows the number of days as 31. If you use the Excel function DAYS(end_date,start_date) it returns the first screenshot number of 30 days. The only other number that changes is the annualized return = 19.10%.
Best regards,
Dan
Dan,
Excellent catch!
When we developed our latest and best calculator/spreadsheet, The Trade Management Calculator, I used a formula that included the day of the trade in calculating the # days to expiration. A case can be made including it or not, but I felt it to be a bit more accurate with its inclusion.
I also asked my team to update the other spreadsheets to include the additional 1 day in annualized return calculations and we are in process of doing so. The Expected Price Movement Calculator will be updated very soon, replacing the current version located on our premium member site.
Alan
I was notified by my team that the updated version is already up on the member site … Alan
Alan, Barry,
Pretty serious question here. This morning I entered the sector spiders. I use Tradier and they are pretty unfriendly on entering a buy write so I’m legging in (so to speak). My equities have all been filled.
As I enter the near the money calls to sell to complete the covered call, what happens if the option gets hit and the stock gets called away?
I’m pretty anxious for your thoughts and I know that they are not recommendation just suggestions in learning.
Thanks in advance for a quick response.
Brad
Brad,
The scenario that you mention is extremely rare. In trading covered calls since 2007, this (very early assignment) has never happened to me. If your stock is assigned, it typically will occur near the end of the options cycle, unless there is a dividend play and that typically does not happen with ETFs.
Now…if your stock was assigned (called away) very early in the month, that would be good for you! This would mean:
– Your trade plan was executed exactly as you planned it
– You hit your target return early in the month
– You are back in cash…in addition to your premium income
– You can now deploy that same cash in another trade
– Net/net…nothing to be concerned about.
Best,
Barry