Comments on: Price Charts Tell a Story and Provide Guidance in Formulating Our Investment Strategies https://www.thebluecollarinvestor.com/price-charts-tell-a-story-and-provide-guidance-in-formulating-our-investment-strategies/ Learn how to invest by selling stock options. Thu, 15 Nov 2018 15:55:41 +0000 hourly 1 By: Alan Ellman https://www.thebluecollarinvestor.com/price-charts-tell-a-story-and-provide-guidance-in-formulating-our-investment-strategies/#comment-185263 Thu, 15 Nov 2018 15:55:41 +0000 https://www.thebluecollarinvestor.com/?p=17252#comment-185263 In reply to Terry.

Terry,

Let’s give the analysts the benefit of the doubt. There are “bad actors” in every profession, but, in general, I believe there is value in viewing the combined analyst reviews and that they do provide a valuable service. Each member can determine how much weight to dedicate to MAR.

As an example, I’ve included a current screenshot of the MAR for NFLX showing a dichotomy of opinions with an overall “buy” rating.

CLICK ON IMAGE TO ENLARGE & USE THE BACK ARROW TO RETURN TO BLOG.

Alan

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By: Terry https://www.thebluecollarinvestor.com/price-charts-tell-a-story-and-provide-guidance-in-formulating-our-investment-strategies/#comment-185260 Thu, 15 Nov 2018 14:22:35 +0000 https://www.thebluecollarinvestor.com/?p=17252#comment-185260 “2 new files titled “Mean Analyst rating” and “On Balance Volume” as these metrics will soon be added”

Regarding the analyst ratings, I thought that analyst ratings are predominantly Buy so that they can make their commissions?

Best;

Terry

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By: Alan Ellman https://www.thebluecollarinvestor.com/price-charts-tell-a-story-and-provide-guidance-in-formulating-our-investment-strategies/#comment-185200 Wed, 14 Nov 2018 22:27:47 +0000 https://www.thebluecollarinvestor.com/?p=17252#comment-185200 In reply to Keivan.

Keivan,

In normal market conditions:

Stock report has 30 -60 eligible securities

ETF Report has 15 – 20 securities

Blue Chip Report (Dow 30) has about 10 – 12 securities

In bear markets:

The numbers are cut in half

In extreme bear markets (rare) the 3 reports may total 20 securities.

Alan

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By: Alan Ellman https://www.thebluecollarinvestor.com/price-charts-tell-a-story-and-provide-guidance-in-formulating-our-investment-strategies/#comment-185199 Wed, 14 Nov 2018 22:19:45 +0000 https://www.thebluecollarinvestor.com/?p=17252#comment-185199 In reply to Rafaelle.

Rafaelle,

The near-the-money strikes (both ITM and OTM) will return between 1% and 2% for the December 21st contracts. This represents time value returns so the intrinsic value of the ITM strikes will bring down your cost-basis.

Since you are neutral-to-bearish on the stock consider favoring ITM strikes.

Use the multiple tab of the Ellman Calculator to visualize time value returns, upside potential (should you choose OTM strikes) and downside protection (for ITM strikes).

All decisions are made based on current market value not some past value that no longer exists. I know that is difficult but this approach will benefit us in the long run.

Alan

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By: Keivan https://www.thebluecollarinvestor.com/price-charts-tell-a-story-and-provide-guidance-in-formulating-our-investment-strategies/#comment-185178 Wed, 14 Nov 2018 10:28:27 +0000 https://www.thebluecollarinvestor.com/?p=17252#comment-185178 Alan,

I have a question.

May I ask you, since last October, normally how many stocks are in your watchlist and eligible to buy?

I just need and average to know, during market down, is still enough stocks to trade or not?

Thanks
Keivan

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By: Rafaelle https://www.thebluecollarinvestor.com/price-charts-tell-a-story-and-provide-guidance-in-formulating-our-investment-strategies/#comment-185177 Wed, 14 Nov 2018 06:44:30 +0000 https://www.thebluecollarinvestor.com/?p=17252#comment-185177 Allan,

I’m in a quandary and seeking your advice. I’m long At&t at 33.50, it closed today 11-13-2018 at 30.60. I just bought back my 10 contracts of the Nov 30 call option at .02, which I initially sold at .11, thereby sticking to your 20/10 buy back rule.

However, now I would like to write more OTM Nov or Dec calls, but the premiums are almost nonexistent. I’m bearish to neutral on the stock right now. Should I sell the ITM calls on this stock?? I do not see how that would make sense though, since I’d be taking a hit on the stock price. Please advise.

Best,
Rafaelle

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By: Hoyt T https://www.thebluecollarinvestor.com/price-charts-tell-a-story-and-provide-guidance-in-formulating-our-investment-strategies/#comment-185147 Tue, 13 Nov 2018 21:46:55 +0000 https://www.thebluecollarinvestor.com/?p=17252#comment-185147 In reply to Hoyt T.

Hey Terry,

A lot of whipsawing today.

Open wasn’t was bad as I thought it would be. I was really surprised by the futures about two hours before the open but they really fell as the open approached.

This is a very schizophrenic market. They say you are what you love so I guess I am getting schizophrenic.:)

It seems we all think the market is going lower. Sometimes group think is a contrarian indicator.:)

Good luck to us all.

Hoyt

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