What makes some stock option premiums worth so much more than others? Let’s say we have two stocks, A and B. Both are trading @ $25/share. We look to sell the same month at-the-money $25 strike and one (stock A) returns 2% and the other (stock B) 4%. WHY? The answer lies predominantly in the mysterious world of implied volatility (IV). The volatility of an option reflects the forecasted fluctuation in the price of the underlying stock, both up and down. It does NOT predict a trend but rather a range of price change that the equity can have. In this case, stock B has a much higher IV than does A.
Let’s revisit our equation of the factors that determine the value of an option premium:
Intrinsic value is the amount of money the strike is below the market value of the equity, nothing more or less. It is not affected by stock volatility or anything other than the value of the underlying security. Therefore, volatility of the stock relates only to time value.
Now take a big gulp of high-octane coffee as I give review some definitions:
Historical Volatility (Statistical Volatility): A statistic or statement of fact based on the closing prices over the past year. If a stock has had a trading range between $30 and $40 and has an average price of $35, we can say the historical volatility is $5 in either direction. A stock that moves up or down $5 from its average of $35 is said to have an HV of 14.3% (5/35). It does not predict a future direction.
Implied Volatility: This is the market’s estimate of future volatility and is based on the option’s last traded price. Stated differently, it is the volatility that the market as a whole is expecting that is giving the option premium its current value. If the historical volatility (HV or SV) is @ 14.3% and the current implied volatility is @ 30%, then that option is considered overpriced.
Common sense formulas:
As IV increases = Call premium increases
As IV decreases = Call premium decreases
Causes of implied volatility changes:
•changes in stock volatility
•supply and demand
•market psychology and volatility
Mathematics of Implied Volatility:
In statistics, we often hear the term standard deviation. This means that a certain event will occur based on a statistical model, a certain percent of the time. Let’s clarify this with an example:
Blue Collar Investor Corp (BCI) is currently trading @ $60 per share (I wish!). A pricing model like the Black-Scholes, determines that, based on the current market value of the call option ($60 strike, for example), the IV is 25%. This means that the market is anticipating a price change of $15 (25% of $60) up or down. Remember it does not identify a trend. The expected range for the year currently is between $45 and $75 (plus or minus 25% of $60). The likelihood of this being accurate is 1 standard deviation or 68% of the time. It will fall outside these limits 32% of the time. Bottom line: When IV percentages are quoted, they are based on the current option value and on 1 standard deviation.
Where to access Historical and Implied Volatility Stats: Use this link for iVolatility.com:
You can access volatility charts which compare historical and implied volatility. Here is one such chart:
ADTN: Volatility Chart
This chart was captured a few days prior to the earnings report for ADTN. It is no surprise that the IV (red arrow) is higher than the HV (green arrow) as the market is anticipating a short term price fluctuation due to a potential positive or negative earnings surprise.
If a 1-month at-the-money option returns more than 6-7% the market is anticipating a large price change by expiration Friday. In most instances, I will avoid these situations and target a 2-4% return. Exceptions to this guideline include strong bull markets and the use of in-the-money strikes to hedge against potential negative price movement. For more information on strike price selection, see pages 108-124 of Alan Ellman’s Encyclopedia for Covered Call Writing.
Our stock option premiums consist of intrinsic value (for in-the-money strikes only) and time value. The volatility of the underlying equity impacts only the time value. The greater the implied (forecasted) volatility, the richer the option premium. The direction of price movement is NOT inherent in implied volatility stats which are based on 1 standard deviation.
Slow economic growth along with a lower-than-anticipated inflation rate raises questions for the need for additional monetary easing:
- The Producer Price Index (indicator for consumer inflation) rose by 0.1% in June above the (-) 0.6% expected
- The members of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) expressed concern over sluggish economic data in minutes from June’s meeting
- The trade deficit decreased in May by 4% to $48.7 billion below the expected gap of $50.1 billion
- The trade deficit with China, however, rose to $26 billion as taxes were imposed on American cars. The US had lodged a trade complaint on these tariffs
- Consumer credit balances, a measure of potential spending patterns, increased in May to $17.1 billion, well above the $8.5 billion expected
For the week, the S&P 500 rose by 0.2% for a year-to-date return of 9.1% including dividends.
IBD: Uptrend under pressure
BCI: Cautiously bullish favoring in-the-money strikes (75%)
My best to all,
Alan ([email protected])