Whether we are using covered call writing, put-selling or any other investment strategy, investor interpretation of results is an interesting topic to analyze. Is the glass half-full or half-empty? On October 5th, 2018, Gene wrote me about two covered call positions he was holding and expressed deep concern over the status of those trades. This article will review one of the trades, discuss potential exit strategy opportunities and examine the lessons learned.

 

Gene’s trades with Amarin Corp. (NASQAQ: AMRN)

  • 9/17/2018: Buy 11,000 x AMRN at $1.88 
  • 9/17/2018: Sell 60 x $5 1/19/2019 calls at $1.17
  • 9/17/2018: Sell 50 x $7 1/19/2019 calls at $0.60
  • 10/5/2018: AMRN trading at $20.29 (not a misprint!)

 

Gene’s dilemma

Since the strike is deep in-the-money, exercise is likely and is currently, according to Gene, ” losing a lot of money” The question posed to me:

  • How can exercise be avoided?
  • What can be done to recover these losses 

 

The price chart and news

technical analysis

AMRN Price Chart on October 5, 2018

Checking the news, we conclude that the price jump was related to positive news regarding this biotech company’s fish oil product as well takeover rumors:

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/apos-why-amarin-corporation-jumped-202400588.html

 

Initial calculations using the Ellman Calculator

 

covered call writing calculations

AMRN Initial Calculations

Both strikes offer huge initial returns which, if realized, would result in annualized returns of over 5000%. As of October 5th, shares would have to move below the strike prices for these amazing returns not to be realized. If closed, the returns would still end up more than 250% for the 18-day period from 9/17 to 10/5.

 

Why is the glass half empty? 

Although the trades are currently at maximum, impressive returns, more money could have been made had the calls not been written. This means that maximum covered call success was achieved (to date) but had another strategy been employed (straight stock ownership), better results could have been achieved.

 

AMRN option chain on October 5th

 

exit strategies for covered call writing

AMRN Option Chain for January 2019 Contracts

 

Action choices 

1. Take no action and re-evaluate as expiration approaches…still 3 months+ to go. 

2. Unwind entire position and use cash to establish additional income streams. For this, we would need to calculate the time value cost-to-close. Using the “Unwind Now” tab of the Elite version of the Ellman Calculator, we see the cost-to-close the $5 strike is 2.2% and the $7 strike is 8.29%. We ask ourselves, can we generate more than 2.2% or 8.29% over the next 3 months in a new position with a different stock? 2.2% absolutely; 8.29% maybe not. Covered call writers would be more likely to close the $5 strike and leave the $7 strike as things stand now if unwinding is considered (Known as the mid-contract unwind exit strategy in the BCI methodology).

 

Cost-to-close the $5 strike

covered call writing calculations

The Elite Ellman Calculator: Unwind Now Tab

 

Cost-to-close the $7 strike

covered call writing exit strategies

Closing the $7 Strike

 

Lesson learned

The initial and current calculations reflect huge short-term returns. This is the good news. The negative concerns are inherent in using such a volatile underlying which could just as easily resulted in catastrophic results. This stock may be a decent longer-term candidate in a portfolio consisting of riskier trades funded with cash not needed for everyday consumption.

 

Discussion

When measuring the success of our trades, we evaluate the results based on initial goals not on potential results had a different strategy been employed. It is critical to use the most appropriate stocks and options for conservative option strategies like covered call writing and exit strategy implementation must be based on sound understanding of the calculations involved.

 

***For more information on the mid-contract unwind exit strategy:

The Complete Encyclopedia for Covered Call Writing- classic edition: Pages 264 – 271

The Complete Encyclopedia for Covered Call Writing- Volume 2: Pages 243 – 252

 

Upcoming events

-March 29th

Quinnipiac GAME Forum
International forum for college and graduate school finance majors

-May 8th 

Alan will be hosting a free webinar for the Options Industry Council (OIC) on generating income from selling options. More information to follow.

-May 13th

All Stars of Options

Bally’s Hotel, Las Vegas

10 AM – 10:45 AM

How to Select the Best Options in Bull and Bear Markets

Free event

-May 14th

Las Vegas Money Show

Bally’s/ Paris Hotel

12:15 – 3:15

Master class encompassing covered call writing, put-selling and the stock repair strategy

This is a paid event hosted by The Money Show

 

Your generous testimonials 

Over the years, the BCI community has been incredibly gracious by sending our BCI team email testimonials sharing stories as to what our educational content has meant to their families. Moving forward, we have decided to share some of these testimonials in our blog articles. We will never use a last name unless given permission:

Alan,

I’m in love with covered calls and your system. You have done an excellent job explaining and mapping out your thoughts behind your system and each step.

Anthony W.

 

Market tone

This week’s economic news of importance:

  • Retail sales Jan. 0.2% (0.1% expected)
  • NFIB small business index Feb. 101.7 (101.2 last)
  • Consumer price index Feb. 0.2% (as expected)
  • Durable goods orders Jan. 0.4% (-0.1% expected)
  • Producer price index Feb. 0.1% (0.2% expected)
  • Construction spending Jan. 1.3% (0.5% expected)
  • Weekly jobless claims 3/9 229,000 (225,000 expected)
  • New home sales Jan. 607,000 (616,000 expected)
  • Industrial production Feb. 0.1% (0.4% expected)
  • Job openings Jan. 7.6 million (7.5 million last)
  • Consumer sentiment March 97.8 (95.0 expected)

 

THE WEEK AHEAD

Mon March 18th

  • Home builders’ index March

Tue March 19th

  • Housing starts Feb.
  • Factory orders Jan.

Wed March 20th

  • Federal Reserve announcement

Thu March 21st

  • Weekly jobless claims 3/16
  • Philly Fed index March
  • Leading economic indicators Feb.

Fri March22nd

  • Markit manufacturing PMI March
  • Markit services PMI
  • Existing home sales Feb.
  • Wholesale inventories Jan.
  • Federal budget Feb.

For the week, the S&P 500 moved up by  2.89% for a year-to-date return of 12.59%

Summary

IBD: Market in confirmed uptrend

GMI: 6/6- Bullish signal since market close of January 31, 2019 

BCI: I am favoring out-of-the-money strikes 3-to-2 compared to in-the-money strikes for new positions. 

 

WHAT THE BROAD MARKET INDICATORS (S&P 500 AND VIX) ARE TELLING US

The 6-month charts point to mixed market tone. In the past six months, the S&P 500 down 2% while the VIX (12.88) moved down by 1%. 

 

Wishing you the best in investing,

Alan and the BCI team